canadian politics

Can the Liberals take all the credit for economic and jobs gains?

This one earns a rating of ‘some baloney’ by The Canadian Press

Can the Liberals take all the credit for economic and jobs gains?

“We took a one-per-cent growth rate under the Conservatives and turned it into a three-per-cent growth rate. We created 700,000 new jobs over the past three years, and right now we have the lowest unemployment rate in recorded history in Canada.” — Prime Minister Justin Trudeau


Prime Minister Justin Trudeau decided the end of 2018 was a good time to look back at the economic and jobs gains since he took office. “We took” low growth and sent it higher, he said. “We created 700,000 new jobs,” he added.

All of which raises a question: can the prime minister — and his government’s policies, by extension — take credit for all the economic benefits the country has felt since late 2015?

Spoiler alert: The Canadian Press Baloney Meter is a dispassionate examination of political statements culminating in a ranking of accuracy on a scale of “no baloney” to “full of baloney” (complete methodology below).

This one earns a rating of “some baloney.” Here’s why.

The facts

Canada’s economy grew at a rate of one per cent in 2015 — dropping from about 2.9 per cent in 2014 — when the Trudeau Liberals replaced the Harper Conservatives in the autumn.

The Liberals’ first budget in 2016 estimated that economic impacts of their spending would mean an increase to Canada’s gross domestic product of 1.5 per cent between 2016 and 2018, and create or maintain 143,000 jobs.

In 2016, the economy grew by 1.4 per cent. The economy got hot and grew by three per cent in 2017, and is expected to finish 2018 with further growth of around two per cent.

An analysis of Statistics Canada jobs data shows about 792,000 jobs have been created in Canada since the Liberals took office. Almost 690,000 of those jobs have been full-time, and the remaining 102,000 part-time.

The unemployment rate has dropped from 7 per cent when the Liberals took office to 5.6 per cent, the lowest mark since comparable data first became available in 1976. The country registered a 5.4-per-cent unemployment rate in 1974 under the previous statistical approach.

The experts

Former parliamentary budget officer Kevin Page said there is a case to be made that higher government spending on infrastructure and the Canada Child Benefit has boosted economic growth — modestly. The Liberals have boosted federal spending as a percentage of the economy, and the $34.3-billion increase amounts to about 0.6 per cent of gross domestic product, he said.

Iglika Ivanova, a senior economist with the B.C. branch of the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives, said some public spending, such as on child care to allow parents to get into the workforce, has wider effects than others, such as tax measures.

“When the government spends money, it doesn’t go into a black hole. It becomes somebody’s income and then this person then spends it,” she said. “It may overstate it to say the government is responsible for all of the economic growth, because obviously other things happen too, but they certainly played a role.”

Fraser Institute president Niels Veldhuis said federal infrastructure spending might have given a bump to the economy, but much of it may not have the same economic ripple effects that investments yielded by building or improving trade infrastructure.

Philip Cross, a senior fellow at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute, said the income-tested child benefit likely had a bigger economic effect than infrastructure spending. He said it’s not clear how much of the billions in payments was spent, which would help the economy, and how much was saved, which economists refer to as “leakage.”

The Canadian economy has also benefited from a strong global economy over the past two years, Cross said, warning there are signs that the world — and Canada — are headed for a slowdown.

“Things happen in the business sector, particularly with a global, integrated economy, that governments don’t control as much as they used to,” Cross said.

The verdict

It’s true Canada has seen boosts in the economy and jobs since 2015, but experts say no government can take full credit for all the good economic news. If that were the case, then economic downturns must also be the fault of government, they say.

Trudeau’s comments, therefore, have “some baloney” — the facts are accurate, but taking credit for everything is a step too far down the baloney road.

“In the political side, we get a lot of spin and that’s not a Liberal or Conservative or NDP (thing),” Veldhuis said. “They’re going to look at things and, in part, kind of skew them in favour of themselves and I think you’ve seen that here with a quote from the prime minister.”

Maybe this time of year will remind federal politicians to take up a New Year’s resolution have less baloney in their statements. If not, experts suggest voters look for a variety of trustworthy sources — the parliamentary budget office, for instance — to decide how accurate a politician is being about what he or she can do for the economy.

“We suspend our disbelief and believe them because it’s comforting to think that our political system controls events,” Cross said, “but I think the track record shows it really doesn’t.”

Methodology

The Baloney Meter is a project of The Canadian Press that examines the level of accuracy in statements made by politicians. Each claim is researched and assigned a rating based on the following scale:

No baloney — the statement is completely accurate

A little baloney— the statement is mostly accurate but more information is required

Some baloney — the statement is partly accurate but important details are missing

A lot of baloney — the statement is mostly inaccurate but contains elements of truth

Full of baloney — the statement is completely inaccurate

Jordan Press, The Canadian Press

Like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter.

Get local stories you won't find anywhere else right to your inbox.
Sign up here

Just Posted

Police tape is shown in Toronto Tuesday, May 2, 2017. Statistics Canada says the country's crime rate ticked up again in 2018, for a fourth year in a row, though it was still lower than it was a decade ago. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Graeme Roy
CRIME STOPPERS: ‘Most wanted’ for the week of March 7

Crime Stoppers’ weekly list based on information provided by police investigators

A Langley senior has had his vaccination and booster and is reporting no ill effects. (Black Press Media files)
LETTER: Langley man has both jabs and encourages others to get theirs

No uncontrollable rolling of eyes, swelling in odd places, nor inversion of bellybutton, man reports

A memorial to Hudson Brooks grew quickly outside the South Surrey RCMP detachment following his July 2015 death at the hands of police. (File photo)
Inquest yields ‘sliver of justice’ for South Surrey’s Hudson Brooks: brother

Beau Brooks says he’s not optimistic call for increased RCMP training will bear fruit

This artist’s rendering shows the “offset” portion in the upper third of the 12-storey building that would be located near the 200th Street highway interchange. (Langley Township/Special to the Langley Advance Times)
12-storey tower contemplated for North Langley

The office tower would be one of the largest in Langley if approved

Send us letters to the editor through our website or social media channels. (Ludger Aundrup photo)
LETTER: The more Langley woman learns about the world, the more she loves Canada

A year into the pandemic, local letter writer praises government handling of difficult situation

The James C Richardson Pipe Band marches in a Remembrance Day parade on Nov. 11, 2019 in Chilliwack. Wednesday, March 10 is International Bagpipe Day. (Jenna Hauck/ Chilliwack Progress file)
Unofficial holidays: Here’s what people are celebrating for the week of March 7 to 13

International Bagpipe Day, Wash Your Nose Day and Kidney Day are all coming up this week

Victoria man Brett Andersen is asking for people’s help to secure him one of eight free tickets to the moon. (Screenshot/@brettandersen Instagram)
Victoria man wants your help securing a free ticket to the moon

Japanese billionaire offering eight people a trip to the moon

The Conservation Officers Service is warning aquarium users after invasive and potentially destructive mussels were found in moss balls from a pet store. (BC Conservation Officers Service/Facebook)
Aquarium users in B.C. warned after invasive mussels found at pet store

Conservation officers were told the mussels were found in a moss ball from a Terrace pet store.

Cannabis bought in British Columbia (Ashley Wadhwani/Black Press Media)
Is it time to start thinking about greener ways to package cannabis?

Packaging suppliers are still figuring eco-friendly and affordable packaging options that fit the mandates of Cannabis Regulations

Hockey hall-of-fame legend Wayne Gretzky, right, watches the casket of his father, Walter Gretzky, as it is carried from the church during a funeral service in Brantford, Ont., Saturday, March 6, 2021. HE CANADIAN PRESS/Nathan Denette
Walter Gretzky remembered as a man with a ‘heart of gold’ at funeral

The famous hockey father died Thursday at age 82 after battling Parkinson’s disease

Donald Alan Sweet was once an all star CFL kicker who played for the Montreal Alouettes and Montreal Concordes over a 13-year career. Photo courtesy of Mission RCMP.
Ex-B.C. teacher who was CFL kicker charged with assault, sexual crimes against former students

Donald Sweet taught in Mission School District for 10 years, investigators seek further witnesses

During a press event on March 6, Const. Alex Berube, media relations officer for the West Shore RCMP, addressed a deadly shooting that occurred in Metchosin the night before. (Devon Bidal/News Staff)
VIDEO: One man shot dead on Vancouver Island in ‘targeted incident’

Highway 14 reopens following multi-hour closure for investigation

B.C. RCMP Lower Mainland District officer, Asst. Commissioner Stephen Thatcher presents RCMP blankets to (from left) Chief James Hobart, Chief Maureen Chapman, Chief Derek Epp and Chief Mark Point. (RCMP)
Historic agreement significantly expands Indigenous role in Lower Mainland policing

Community Safety Agreement builds relationship of ‘trust, communication and prevention,’ says Chief

Most Read