With sales down, total active listing rose nearly 31 per cent to 33,500 units in November, compared to the same month last year. This said, active listings for the month of November 2017 were at their lowest level in more than 15 years. (Pixabay.com)

B.C. real estate body warns of ‘cracks’ in Canadian economy in 2019

British Columbia Real Estate Association predicts Bank of Canada won’t meet interest goals

The body representing the provincial real estate industry warns of “cracks” in the Canadian economy.

Cameron Muir, chief economist of the British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA), made that observation in the organization’s mortgage rate forecast for December 2018.

RELATED: Victoria in Canada’s top three cities for highest household debt

“The most recent quarter of Canadian GDP data was, on the surface, relatively strong, showing that the economy expanded at a 2 per cent annual rate,” he said. “However, the underlying data was far less encouraging. Household spending slowed, residential investment fell 1.5 per cent and business investment also declined following six consecutive quarterly increases.”

The report sounds especially concerned about the state of the Alberta’s oil industry. A lack of pipeline capacity has prompted a build-up of inventory, causing prices of Western Canada Select oil to drop.

The “deep discount” for Western Canada Select oil is one of the reasons why BCREA appears “skeptical” that the Bank of Canada will succeed in raising its interest rate — which sets the rate for all other interest rates — to a ‘neutral’ level of three per cent over the medium term.

“However, other cracks in the economy are starting to appear as well, including the highly publicized closing to GM’s Oshawa plant, which will have a material impact on growth in Ontario,” said Muir. “Those factors, along with a slowing housing market across Canada and a potentially sharp slowdown in US economic growth next year, may give the Bank pause.”

The Bank of Canada, in other words, may refrain from measures that could further stall an economy that appears to be slowing down anyway.

RELATED: ‘Subdued’ housing market predicted in B.C. through 2021: report

Looking at provincial figures for November, they confirm the slowing house market. According to the BCREA, November 2018 sales dropped 33.1 per cent cent from the same month last year to 5,179 units sold, with sales volume declining 34.3 per cent to $3.7 billion.

With sales down, total active listing rose nearly 31 per cent to 33,500 units in November, compared to the same month last year. This said, active listings for the month of November 2017 were at their lowest level in more than 15 years.

Notably, prices barely budged, dropping 1.9 per cent to an average of $718,903.

“BC households continue to struggle with the sharp decline in purchasing power caused by the B20 mortgage stress test,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. “Most BC regions are now exhibiting relative balance between supply and demand.”

Year-to-date, BC residential sales dollar volume was down 23.1 per cent to $53.4 billion, compared with the same period in 2017. Residential unit sales declined 23.6 per cent to 74,847 units, while the average residential price was up 0.7 per cent to $713,302.


Like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter

wolfgang.depner@saanichnews.com

Get local stories you won't find anywhere else right to your inbox.
Sign up here

Just Posted

Missing teen who went to Langley mall last seen in Mission

Mother says 17-year-old is diabetic and doesn’t have his insulin

RCMP charge Langley man in connection with boat collision on Cultus Lake

A 67-year-old man allegedly operated a motor boat that collided with a woman paddling a canoe

Aldergrove nine year old starts veggie stand to raise money for his first computer

Lochlan Delmaestro has sold $45 worth of herbs and vegetables in just two weeks

VIDEO: Fire breaks out in RV, spreads to garage of Langley home

Crews remain on site as the investigate the cause and extend of damage

Shopping local in Aldergrove could pay off this month

$600 in prizes available for the people who buy the most local goods

B.C. conservation officers free not-so-wily coyote

Poor pup was found with a glass jar stuck on its head in Maple Ridge

Fraser Valley Bandits clinch first round bye with win

Bandits defeat Guelph 84-70, advance to the CEBL semifinals on Saturday

B.C. doctors, dentists call on province for mandatory mask rule

Open letter says masks should be worn in indoor public spaces, public transportation or in crowds

Dwindling B.C. bamboo supply leaves Calgary Zoo biologists worried about pandas

Zoo has been trying to send pandas back to China since May

Maple Ridge firefighting camp empowers young women

Camp Ignite to take place at Justice Institute on Sunday, Aug. 9

Facebook launches its new TikTok clone, Instagram Reels

Facebook has a long tradition of cloning competitive services

B.C. Appeal Court prevents Victoria woman from using the term ‘death midwife’ in her job

Pashta MaryMoon claimed she had been providing “death-care services” for more than 40 years

‘We all have anxieties’: B.C.’s top doctor addresses return-to-school fears amid COVID-19

Dr. Bonnie Henry promises school restart plan safe for B.C. kids

Most Read