Dr. Bonnie Henry, B.C.’s provincial health officer, works on a daily summary at her office in Victoria, April 18, 2020. (B.C. government)

Dr. Bonnie Henry, B.C.’s provincial health officer, works on a daily summary at her office in Victoria, April 18, 2020. (B.C. government)

COMMENTARY: COVID-19 modelling useful, but not a crystal ball

B.C.’s chief health officer explains risk of relaxing too soon

By Dr. Bonnie Henry

VICTORIA – Now that we are well and truly into our COVID-19 pandemic response, many people throughout British Columbia and Canada have similar questions and concerns.

How bad is it going to get? How long do we have to be physically distant from others and put aside our regular routines? When can we get back to work, see our loved ones and book social events? I understand the anxiety and frustration that comes with this uncertainty.

One of the tools we in B.C., as well as other provinces and the federal government, have used to understand these issues is modelling. In late March, British Columbia was the first province to share its modelling. We contributed to the national modelling in early April, and have now released our latest report.

RELATED: B.C.’s latest COVID-19 modelling shows curve flattening

RELATED: Summer parades, fairs off the table for 2020, Henry says

COVID-19 hit the world like a Category 5 hurricane. The most recent B.C. modelling shows us that in the face of this storm, we have made considerable progress in our province. We have experienced significant damage, but are still standing strong.

I want each of you to know that this is for one reason: The immense efforts that you have taken to ‘batten down the hatches’ by being physically distant from others and following the orders and restrictions in place, are truly making a difference.

I also want everyone to know that we are in the eye of the hurricane right now, and to fully weather this storm, we must remain 100% committed.

The modelling from B.C. and elsewhere clearly shows that if we relax our measures too soon, we will face more severe and unnecessary damage.

So how does our modelling help? To begin, we must understand that modelling is not a crystal ball. Instead, it is a useful tool to understand the many situations that we in B.C, as well as people around the world, are in, and the many approaches being taken to flatten the curve. Here in B.C., we also use dynamic modelling to assess what is happening right now, in our province and around the world. This helps guide our decision-making for the future.

We are only as strong as our weakest links in society, so modelling also allows us to look over our shoulders at past indicators to see how we’ve done in our attempt to protect people. We can decide what we need to prepare for, and what we can fix right now. Modelling also helps us determine how much longer we need to protect our communities with physical distancing.

It is important to understand that all models are inherently imprecise, because they use assumptions that are based on imperfect data, and there is no way for us to know for sure what’s going to happen tomorrow. What we can attempt to see from modelling, though, is how we might influence the curve of a model ourselves, every day, by being extra careful about our physical distancing and other proven measures like cleaning our hands, covering our coughs and staying home when sick.

In B.C., we are committed to updating our modelling regularly so that everyone can see whether our efforts are successful, day to day, and what our possibilities are compared to other places in the world. We will continue to publish our ongoing epidemiologic curve, case counts and our test-positive rates each day on the BC Centre for Disease Control’s website.

In our latest presentation, we provided even more data: we have shared the demographics and the epidemiology that tell us who has been affected most by this virus – the age ranges, the locations and various types of epidemiological information – to help everyone get a better picture of who, where and when people in B.C. have been affected.

We are being transparent and open with this information because, as I know well, we all need hope and we all want to know how our actions are making a difference.

I also want to remind everyone that physically distancing from others does not mean being alone or without aid. Reaching out online and allowing community members to help in these challenging times can make a world of difference.

We want everyone to stand united and stay strong. Every British Columbian has a part to play in flattening the curve and making a difference. Let’s all continue together to be safe, be calm, be kind and do the right thing.

For the latest medical updates, including case counts, prevention, risks and testing, visit: www.bccdc.ca or follow @CDCofBC on Twitter.

For the provincial health officer’s orders, notices and guidance, visit: www.gov.bc.ca/phoguidance

For non-health related information, including financial, child care and education supports, travel, transportation and essential service information, visit: www.gov.bc.ca/COVID19

Or call 1-888-COVID19 (1-888-268-4319) between 7:30 a.m. and 8 p.m., seven days a week.

Dr. Bonnie Henry is B.C.’s provincial health officer.

Coronavirus

Get local stories you won't find anywhere else right to your inbox.
Sign up here

Just Posted

The driver of a pickup truck failed to stop after knocking down a wooden fence on March 3, 2021. (screen grab)
VIDEO: Footage catches pick-up driver smash fence on Abbotsford/Langley border

Driver came forward after video circulated on social media

Do you have an opinion you’d like to share? Write or email your letter. You can also submit letters and story tips through our website. (Pixabay)
LETTER: Langley resident laments loss of housing dreams for youth

Canadians have to rethink about equality in light of economic disparities

Free Reformed Church is seen as people attend service, in Chilliwack, B.C., on Sunday, Feb. 21, 2021. Lawyers for the British Columbia government and the Justice Centre for Constitutional Freedoms are back in B.C. Supreme Court today, squaring off over the legality of COVID-19 rules that prohibit in-person religious services. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Darryl Dyck
B.C. top doctor has power to restrict access to a place during health hazard: lawyer

Under B.C.’s Public Health Act, Jacqueline Hughes says, Henry can restrict or prevent entry to a place

A memorial to Hudson Brooks grew quickly outside the South Surrey RCMP detachment following his July 2015 death at the hands of police. (File photo)
Inquest yields ‘sliver of justice’ for South Surrey’s Hudson Brooks: brother

Beau Brooks says he’s not optimistic call for increased RCMP training will bear fruit

This is the latest letter from a local writer concerned about the cutting of trees on land being developed. (Langley Advance Times files)
LETTER: Langley politicians happy allow developers to cut down trees, letter writer argues

Do you have an opinion you’d like to share? There’s various ways to submit letters to the editor

The James C Richardson Pipe Band marches in a Remembrance Day parade on Nov. 11, 2019 in Chilliwack. Wednesday, March 10 is International Bagpipe Day. (Jenna Hauck/ Chilliwack Progress file)
Unofficial holidays: Here’s what people are celebrating for the week of March 7 to 13

International Bagpipe Day, Wash Your Nose Day and Kidney Day are all coming up this week

Kevin Haughton is the founder/technologist of Courtenay-based Clearflo Solutions. Scott Stanfield photo
Islander aims Clearflo clean drinking water system at Canada’s remote communities

Entrepreneur $300,000 mobile system can produce 50,000 litres of water in a day, via solar energy

Cannabis bought in British Columbia (Ashley Wadhwani/Black Press Media)
Is it time to start thinking about greener ways to package cannabis?

Packaging suppliers are still figuring eco-friendly and affordable packaging options that fit the mandates of Cannabis Regulations

Malawian police guard AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccines after the shipment arrived in Lilongwe, Malawi, Friday March 5, 2021. Canada is expecting its first shipments of AstraZeneca vaccine next week. (Associated Press/Thoko Chikondi)
B.C.’s daily COVID-19 cases climb to 634 Friday, four more deaths

Currently 255 people in hospital, 66 in intensive care

A crashed helicopter is seen near Mt. Gardner on Bowen Island on Friday March 5, 2021. Two people were taken to hospital in serious but stable condition after the crash. (Irene Paulus/contributed)
2 people in serious condition after helicopter goes down on Bowen Island

Unclear how many passengers aboard and unclear where the helicopter was going

Surrey Pretrial in Newton. (Photo: Tom Zytaruk)
B.C. transgender inmate to get human rights hearing after being held in mostly male jail

B.C. Human Rights Tribunal member Amber Prince on March 3 dismissed the pretrial’s application to have Makayla Sandve’s complaint dismissed

Supporters rally outside court as Pastor James Coates of GraceLife Church is in court to appeal bail conditions, after he was arrested for holding day services in violation of COVID-19 rules, in Edmonton, Alta., on Thursday March 4, 2021. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jason Franson
‘Law remains valid:’ Pastor accused of violating health orders to remain in jail

The Justice Centre for Constitutional Freedoms is representing the pastor

The Netflix logo on an iPhone. B.C. delayed imposing sales tax on digital services and sweetened carbonated beverages as part of its response to COVID-19. Those taxes take effect April 1, 2021. THE CANADIAN PRESS/AP, Matt Rourke
B.C. applies 7% sales tax on streaming, vaping, sweet drinks April 1

Measures from 2020 budget were delayed due to COVID-19

Chief Don Tom of the Tsartlip First Nation was outraged after Green MLA Adam Olsen revealed on social media that the community had been experiencing a COVID-19 outbreak – a fact the First Nation had chosen to keep private to avoid racist backlash as experienced by the Cowichan Tribes when an outbreak was declared there in January. (Black Press Media file photo)
B.C. First Nation ‘outraged’ after Green MLA reveals COVID-19 outbreak

Tsartlip First Nation chief shares concerns about racist backlash, MLA apologizes

Most Read